According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes.

Following decades of secular decline, many estimates of r∗—the natural or steady-state short-term real interest rate—have risen roughly 1 percentage point since 2020 in the United States. The most ...

Most housing research relies on a single-margin model where a single housing price relates to a single housing quantity. We ...

Since employment dynamics are persistent, a central bank’s dual mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability ...

The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the ...

Watch Mary Daly discuss inflation, recent shocks, AI investment demand and the Fed’s outlook on Bloomberg Surveillance.

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity.

The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond ...

Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been ...