New Zealand will feel the impacts of a ‘Very Strong’ El Niño event over spring and summer of 2026/27. Here’s what you need to ...

El Niño conditions persist in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean, strengthening considerably since mid-winter. Impacts on New Zealand’s weather patterns have recently started to be felt and ...

The tables below show the probabilities (or percent chances) for each of three categories: above average, near average, and below average. In the absence of any forecast guidance there would be an ...

Over 220,000 m 3 of sediment was eroded from just 9.1km of Ūawa/Hikuwai riverbanks in Gisborne (Tairāwhiti). This corresponds to 24 m 3 of sediment for each metre of river channel, or around 1,500 ...

Air flow patterns are expected to tend towards a west or southwesterly flow anomaly, characteristic of El Niño conditions, as the season progresses. June may behave as a transitional month, and the ...

Temperature 2025 was New Zealand’s 4th-warmest year on record, based on Earth Sciences New Zealand’s seven station series which begins in 1909. Annual temperatures were above average (0.51-1.20°C ...

Earth Sciences New Zealand meteorologists are anticipating a significant El Niño influence on weather patterns across the country from winter onwards, potentially bringing reduced rainfall for some ...

The coupled ocean-atmosphere system transitioned to ENSO-neutral (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) during February (i.e. neither La Niña nor El Niño). However, some remnant La Niña like circulations ...

Our assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) activity for the coming season indicates normal to below normal activity. [Tropical cyclones are categorised in strength from 1 to 5, with 5 being most intense.

Earth Sciences New Zealand has confirmed El Niño conditions have been reached in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strongly influence New Zealand’s weather into 2027. El Niño is a global ...