Fed Chair Jerome Powell has sketched out new conditions that could trigger rate cuts by summer’s end, but inflation remains a big question

While generally saying the labor market remains solid and inflation elevated but showing progress toward the Fed’s 2% annual target, the minutes reflect a mixed assessment of whether the tariffs will spur inflation or be more of a one-time hit that will not lead to higher long-term price increases.

At the meeting, 10 members expected two or more quarter-point cuts by the end of the year, while seven forecast no cuts and two anticipated just one.