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How do scientists calculate the probability that an asteroid could hit Earth?

The 2024 YR4 asteroid may come close to Earth, but how do experts calculate this potential impact?
The Conversation

Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works

Zachary del Rosario has received funding from the National Science Foundation and Toyota Research Institute. Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand ...