It is highly unlikely that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates on January 29. However, a cut in March or May could be possible.

Markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to deliver just one more quarter-point interest-rate cut this year, but there’s a little less certainty than before. There is a 34% chance that the Fed’s key rate finished the year at 4%-4.

Guggenheim Partners' chief investment officer forecast on Monday that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates roughly every quarter in 2025, bringing the reduction to around 75 basis points or even a full percentage point this year.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has recently soared toward its highest level since 2023, injecting nervousness into the U.S. stock market that's knocked indexes from their records.

The US Federal Reserve could cut rates three or four times this year if inflation data cooperates, with a first cut possible before July, a senior bank official said Thursday.

But minutes from their December meeting suggest that the decision was a close call — and that there is no guarantee policymakers will lower rates again anytime soon. The minutes of the central bank’s Dec.

Federal Reserve officials at their meeting Dec. 17-18 expected to dial back the pace of interest rate cuts this year in the face of persistently elevated inflation and the threat of widespread tariffs and other potential policy changes.

Inflation is likely to continue to ease and possibly allow the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates sooner and faster than expected, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday in comments that pushed against recent market moves that anticipate a shallower Fed rate path.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the US central bank could lower interest rates again in the first half of 2025 if inflation data continues to be favorable.